Jamie Dimon says he still sees a recession on the horizon

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.

When asked by CNBC’s Leslie Picker if he had changed his view from earlier this year that markets were too optimistic on recession risks, Dimon said the odds were “about the same” as his earlier call.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”

Dimon, leader of the biggest U.S. bank by assets and one of the most respected voices on Wall Street, has warned of an economic “hurricane” since 2022. But the economy has held up better than he expected, and Dimon said Wednesday that while credit-card borrower defaults are rising, America is not in a recession right now.

Dimon added he is “a little bit of a skeptic” that the Federal Reserve can bring inflation down to its 2% target because of future spending on the green economy and military.

“There’s always a large range of outcomes,” Dimon said. “I’m fully optimistic that if we have a mild recession, even a harder one, we would be okay. Of course, I’m very sympathetic to people who lose their jobs. You don’t want a hard landing.”